Comments on: Welcome to the Recession http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/ Specialization is for Insects. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:34:38 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc hourly 1 By: Depressing Financial News Abounds - Are We Headed for a Depression? - One Man’s Blog http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-44276 Depressing Financial News Abounds - Are We Headed for a Depression? - One Man’s Blog Thu, 20 Nov 2008 19:47:13 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-44276 [...] I told you guys we were in a recession back in March, but now I fear we could move from a recession straight into a depression. Things could get really bad… Let’s examine shall we? [...] [...] I told you guys we were in a recession back in March, but now I fear we could move from a recession straight into a depression. Things could get really bad… Let’s examine shall we? [...]

]]> By: News Flash: Dow Jones Loses 780 Points …or… The Sky is Falling! - One Mans Blog http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-42729 News Flash: Dow Jones Loses 780 Points …or… The Sky is Falling! - One Mans Blog Tue, 30 Sep 2008 06:54:00 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-42729 [...] to send out a big “I told you so” to all the haters who didn’t believe it when I called in the recession on March 10. First of all, we have this major housing market problem. Everyone in the US has seen their home [...] [...] to send out a big “I told you so” to all the haters who didn’t believe it when I called in the recession on March 10. First of all, we have this major housing market problem. Everyone in the US has seen their home [...]

]]> By: RHB http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-36814 RHB Fri, 14 Mar 2008 16:18:44 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-36814 The two biggest factors are inflation driven dollar decline, no one seems to pay attention (until this month), and the greedy bank hatched plot, sub prime mortgage mess. My opinion. And I love the rationalized denials. The two biggest factors are inflation driven dollar decline, no one seems to pay attention (until this month), and the greedy bank hatched plot, sub prime mortgage mess. My opinion. And I love the rationalized denials.

]]> By: Steve Elliott http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-36723 Steve Elliott Wed, 12 Mar 2008 07:20:20 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-36723 I have to agree with Steve S, it isn't hard to talk ourselves into a bad position. I am an Insolvency Practitioner in my day job and have to say that after a relatively quiet 2007, we are really beginning to see a lot of corporate failures. March has been manic. I have to agree with Steve S, it isn’t hard to talk ourselves into a bad position.

I am an Insolvency Practitioner in my day job and have to say that after a relatively quiet 2007, we are really beginning to see a lot of corporate failures. March has been manic.

]]> By: STEVE S. http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-36648 STEVE S. Mon, 10 Mar 2008 22:58:47 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-36648 I'm trying not to think about it. I have wonderful properties in coastal NC that I have discounted heavily and still not getting offers. I believe we could recover somewhat if the talking heads on TV would stop painting doom and gloom to everyone. I’m trying not to think about it. I have wonderful properties in coastal NC that I have discounted heavily and still not getting offers. I believe we could recover somewhat if the talking heads on TV would stop painting doom and gloom to everyone.

]]> By: Terry http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-36640 Terry Mon, 10 Mar 2008 19:48:01 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-36640 The GDP growth he referenced can be found <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm" rel="nofollow">here</a> from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Additionally, <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm" rel="nofollow">data</a> on personal income also shows growth. If you are so inclined, poke around on their site as they have pretty graphs if that is your thing. :) I think it is important for this discussion to differentiate indicators of us being in a recession vs. leading indicators that can point to a recession. <a href="http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/" rel="nofollow">Leading indicators</a> over the past 50 years have correctly identified all of the recessions but have also at least half a dozen times pointed to a recession that never occurred. I am not an economist so I tend to listen to what economist say and <a href="http://www.conference-board.org/economics/stalk.cfm" rel="nofollow">this</a> is from Gail Fosler, Chief Economist of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Conference_Board" rel="nofollow">Conference Board</a> (the organization that is responsible for defining the values of the leading indicators), who states that a recession is unlikely but not impossible. It is also interesting to look at the <a href="http://www.miseryindex.us/indexbyyear.asp" rel="nofollow">Misery Index</a> you link to above in historical terms. The GDP growth he referenced can be found here from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Additionally, data on personal income also shows growth. If you are so inclined, poke around on their site as they have pretty graphs if that is your thing. :)

I think it is important for this discussion to differentiate indicators of us being in a recession vs. leading indicators that can point to a recession. Leading indicators over the past 50 years have correctly identified all of the recessions but have also at least half a dozen times pointed to a recession that never occurred.

I am not an economist so I tend to listen to what economist say and this is from Gail Fosler, Chief Economist of the Conference Board (the organization that is responsible for defining the values of the leading indicators), who states that a recession is unlikely but not impossible.

It is also interesting to look at the Misery Index you link to above in historical terms.

]]> By: Mistergin http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-36639 Mistergin Mon, 10 Mar 2008 19:35:50 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-36639 Is it "official" official? I knew it was coming but some folks keep throwing the "official" term around to show we're not. Either way.. I'm stuffing money in the mattress until things settle down a lil =P Is it “official” official?

I knew it was coming but some folks keep throwing the “official” term around to show we’re not.

Either way.. I’m stuffing money in the mattress until things settle down a lil =P

]]> By: Derek Wong http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-36636 Derek Wong Mon, 10 Mar 2008 16:55:23 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-36636 How I love unsubstantiated declarations! Let me count the ways. How I love unsubstantiated declarations! Let me count the ways.

]]> By: John P. http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-36632 John P. Mon, 10 Mar 2008 15:15:22 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-36632 Yojimbo, Care to cite your sources? I'd be interested in seeing where you're getting your numbers. <ul> <li><a href="http://www.miseryindex.us/IRbymonth.asp" rel="nofollow">Inflation is up</a>.</li> <li><a href="http://www.miseryindex.us/URbymonth.asp" rel="nofollow">Unemployment is up</a>.</li> <li>I'm not bothering to check the rest.</li> </ul> John Yojimbo,

Care to cite your sources? I’d be interested in seeing where you’re getting your numbers.

John

]]> By: Yojimbo http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-36626 Yojimbo Mon, 10 Mar 2008 12:46:16 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-36626 Well if we are in a recession we may be out of it before we know it. GDP continues to grow, at last official report (Feb. 28, for last quarter of 07). As noted in your links above, personal income also continues to grow. Unemployment rate has been <em>falling</em> since December. Industrial production has been <em>increasing</em> since November. Retail and food service sales for the period of November 07 thru Jan 08 were UP 4.4% over previous year. Hmm... that's five out of six of the criteria in the definition you cite tending NOT to support the idea that we are in a recession. But wait, wholesale sales have blipped down! The sky IS falling! Feh. Well if we are in a recession we may be out of it before we know it.

GDP continues to grow, at last official report (Feb. 28, for last quarter of 07).

As noted in your links above, personal income also continues to grow.

Unemployment rate has been falling since December.

Industrial production has been increasing since November.

Retail and food service sales for the period of November 07 thru Jan 08 were UP 4.4% over previous year.

Hmm… that’s five out of six of the criteria in the definition you cite tending NOT to support the idea that we are in a recession.

But wait, wholesale sales have blipped down! The sky IS falling!

Feh.

]]> By: Steve Elliott http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-36616 Steve Elliott Mon, 10 Mar 2008 07:18:45 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-36616 Yeah, the credit crunch is beginning to have its effect here too. One of our second tier banks got itself into trouble and has just been nationalised and bankruptcy is running at 100,000 people per year. Scary stuff. Yeah, the credit crunch is beginning to have its effect here too. One of our second tier banks got itself into trouble and has just been nationalised and bankruptcy is running at 100,000 people per year. Scary stuff.

]]> By: justAIMe http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/comment-page-1/#comment-36612 justAIMe Mon, 10 Mar 2008 06:38:50 +0000 http://onemansblog.com/2008/03/10/welcome-to-the-recession/#comment-36612 I couldn't agree with you more! I couldn’t agree with you more!

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